Track record

The ledger.

Every asset thesis the publication has put on the record — by date, with its horizon and current status. Open, played out, invalidated or revised.

No win-rate, no percentages, no trophy wall. Just an honest, append-only ledger: outcomes are added below each piece, and nothing already published is deleted or rewritten.

How to read this: status comes from the dated entries at the bottom of each piece. A thesis stays Open until a condition it set for itself triggers.
Asset
Status
DateAssetThesisHorizonStatus
2026-05-28 AKT Cheap decentralized compute amid a GPU shortage, but traction is unproven — rangebound $0.50–0.90 until the network proves it. Q3–Q4 2026 Open 2026-05-26 ONDO RWA sector leader trading like an outsider; value capture is the problem — rangebound $0.36–0.47, not a reversal. Q3–Q4 2026 Open 2026-05-18 TAO Scarcity mechanics intact after a failed $300 breakout; first target $300, then $360–375. Q3–Q4 2026 Open 2026-05-17 NEAR Unloved at its lows with a June resharding catalyst; we lean to $2.5+ by Q3–Q4 — a bet against sentiment. Q3–Q4 2026 Open 2026-05-13 AAVE Exploit scar vs an intact money machine; 14–15× earnings is the price of fear. Event-driven Open 2026-05-12 HYPE Same business, a 2× earnings gap but an 8× valuation gap — risk premium or an inefficiency someone closes? Event-driven Open