Track record

The ledger.

Every asset thesis the publication has put on the record — by date, with its horizon and current status. Open, played out, invalidated or revised.

No win-rate, no percentages, no trophy wall. Just an honest, append-only ledger: outcomes are added below each piece, and nothing already published is deleted or rewritten.

Last reviewed: .

How to read this: status comes from the dated entries at the bottom of each piece. A thesis stays Open until a condition it set for itself triggers.
Asset
Status
DateAssetThesisHorizonStatus
BTC Bitcoin: everyone's line is at $75,000Our view · $60,000 · band $57–63k · End of Q1 2027 — ends on monthly close above $88,000 · published at ~$76,000 — Q1 2027 Open ETH Ethereum: everything settles here, nothing pays hereOur view · $1,500–1,700 · End of Q1 2027 — ends on monthly close above $2,800 · published at ~$2,240 · ETH/BTC 0.0294 — Q1 2027 Open GRAM Gram: Telegram took the keys. The users didn't followOur view · $0.80 · End of Q1 2027 — ends on weekly close above $1.60 · published at ~$1.10 — Q1 2027 Open SOL Solana: while CT digs the grave, we dug into the numbersOur view · $105–120 reclaim · $88–90 first · Q4 2026 – Q1 2027 — ends on monthly close below $63 · published at ~$74 — Q4 2026 – Q1 2027 Open AKT AKT: cheap compute in the middle of a shortageOur view · Rangebound $0.50–0.90, lower half · Q3–Q4 2026 — ends on hold above $0.90 on real usage · a sustained break below $0.50 is a miss · published at ~$0.75 — Q3–Q4 2026 Open ONDO ONDO: a sector leader at an outsider's priceOur view · Rangebound $0.36–0.47 · Q3–Q4 2026 — ends on a break and hold outside $0.36–0.47 · published at ~$0.40 — Q3–Q4 2026 Invalidated TAO TAO: the scarcity machine after a failed breakoutOur view · $300, then $360–375 · Q3–Q4 2026 — ends on losing the $255 area · published at ~$255 — Q3–Q4 2026 Open NEAR NEAR: the silence before the reshardingOur view · $2.5+ · nothing counts until $1.72 holds · Q3–Q4 2026 — ends on losing the $1.25 base · published at ~$1.5 — Q3–Q4 2026 Played out AAVE AAVE: the price of fear versus the money machineOur view · Base $100–130 · upside ~$154 · Event-driven — ends on two of: a new incident, continued outflow, governance breakdown · published at ~$95 — Event-driven Played out HYPE The valuation paradox: HOOD vs HYPEOur view · The 8× valuation gap narrows · Event-driven — ends on systemic distribution, or the ETF path closing · published at $39 — Event-driven Open