The publication issues authored analysis on equities and crypto assets: for each one — a thesis, the reasoning, context and risks. Pieces come out when there is something worth saying, not on a schedule. "Interest disclosure" means every piece states plainly whether the author holds a position in the asset.
A bear market in time, not depth: the crowded $75k line gives way — $60,000 by Q1 2027; a monthly close above $88,000 ends it.
Our view$60,000 · band $57–63kByEnd of Q1 2027Ends ifMonthly close above $88,000
Thirteen months into the drawdown, the short-term-holder cost basis, Strategy's average cost and December's max pain sit within $600 of each other at $75k. With the Fed hiking, ETF flows negative and the Nasdaq correcting, we lean to $60,000 by the end of Q1 2027. Conviction ~60%.
Read the piece →Structural, not cyclical: the chain wins, the token is not paid — $1,500–1,700 by Q1 2027; a monthly close above $2,800 ends it.
Our view$1,500–1,700ByEnd of Q1 2027Ends ifMonthly close above $2,800
Ethereum holds 54% of DeFi and half of all stablecoins, and earned $6M in fees last month, less than Tron. The fee engine was routed to the rollups by design, the ETF buyer left and the roadmap keeps slipping. We lean to $1,500–1,700 by the end of Q1 2027, a new cycle low against Bitcoin. Conviction ~60%.
Read the piece →Demand is a balance sheet, not users, and 1.08B coins unfreeze in February — $0.80 by Q1 2027; a weekly close above $1.60 ends it.
Our view$0.80ByEnd of Q1 2027Ends ifWeekly close above $1.60
Telegram replaced the foundation, renamed Toncoin to Gram and shipped a wallet for a billion users. Transactions doubled; TVL halved to $43M and the price sits at its 2026 low. With ~46M coins unlocking monthly and 1.08B frozen miner coins due on 21 February 2027, we lean to $0.80 by the end of Q1 2027. Conviction ~60%.
Read the piece →Nine red months and a rebuilt fundamental stack that is still unvoted; we lean to a $105–120 reclaim by Q1 2027 — a monthly close below $63 ends it.
Our view$105–120 reclaim · $88–90 firstByQ4 2026 – Q1 2027Ends ifMonthly close below $63
Nine consecutive red months, ~75% below the 2025 high, and the obituaries are already written. Underneath: two burn proposals still unvoted, ETFs that have never had a red month, Alpenglow prepping on mainnet and Mastercard settling through the chain. We lean to a $105–120 reclaim over Q4 2026 – Q1 2027. Conviction is moderate — ~55%.
Read the piece →Cheap decentralized compute amid a GPU shortage, but traction is unproven — rangebound $0.50–0.90 until the network proves it.
Our viewRangebound $0.50–0.90, lower halfByQ3–Q4 2026Ends ifHold above $0.90 on real usage · a sustained break below $0.50 is a miss
Akash sells compute up to ~85% cheaper than AWS, yet AKT sits ~90% below its high. The product is real, but the metrics are mixed and it is fighting the hyperscalers that hoard the GPUs. We expect a $0.50–0.90 range through Q3–Q4 until the network proves traction. Conviction is low — ~50%.
Read the piece →RWA sector leader trading like an outsider; value capture is the problem — rangebound $0.36–0.47, not a reversal.
Our viewRangebound $0.36–0.47ByQ3–Q4 2026Ends ifA break and hold outside $0.36–0.47
Ondo is the recognised leader in real-world asset tokenization, yet the token sits ~80% below its high. The problem is value capture: platform growth does not reach the token holder. Unlocks press, competition grows. We expect a $0.36–0.47 range, not a reversal. Conviction is low — ~55%.
Read the piece →Scarcity mechanics intact after a failed $300 breakout; first target $300, then $360–375.
Our view$300, then $360–375ByQ3–Q4 2026Ends ifLosing the $255 area
The $300 breakout did not hold and TAO pulled back to $255. But the scarcity mechanics are intact: a 21M cap, emission halved by the halving, demand through the subnets. The market mistook broken momentum for broken mechanics. First target $300, then $360–375.
Read the piece →Unloved at its lows with a June resharding catalyst; we lean to $2.5+ by Q3–Q4 — a bet against sentiment.
Our view$2.5+ · nothing counts until $1.72 holdsByQ3–Q4 2026Ends ifLosing the $1.25 base
Cheap, the AI narrative cooled, the token pinned near the bottom for months. But beneath the silence — the June resharding, an agentic-web narrative that did not vanish, an emission already halved, and inflows into Bitwise. We lean to $2.5+ by Q3–Q4. A bet against sentiment.
Read the piece →Exploit scar vs an intact money machine; 14–15× earnings is the price of fear.
Our viewBase $100–130 · upside ~$154ByEvent-drivenEnds ifTwo of: a new incident, continued outflow, governance breakdown
The exploit and the outflow are real. But the money machine — buybacks from revenue, real yield near $100M, the GHO cycle and a capped supply — stayed intact. The market mistakes a scar for death; 14–15× earnings is the price of fear.
Read the piece →Same business, a 2× earnings gap but an 8× valuation gap — risk premium or an inefficiency someone closes?
Our viewThe 8× valuation gap narrowsByEvent-drivenEnds ifSystemic distribution, or the ETF path closing
Robinhood and Hyperliquid earn from the same thing. The gap in net earnings is twofold. The gap in valuation is eightfold. Where this is a risk premium, and where it is an inefficiency someone will close.
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